The Arthur, Nebraska tornado was one of my favorites
because it was a difficult and conditional forecast that verified
beautifully. Mainly, I was headed north to reposition for the
following several days, but it looked to me like there was sufficient
convergence along a well-capped dryline in central Nebraska to fire
convection. The wind fields and instability values were more than
supportive of supercells, though I had real doubts about tornado
potential due to potentially steep dewpoint depressions and the lack of
local boundaries. I thought storms would appear after 0z and the
chase would unfold mostly after dark.
Luckily, storms erupted much earlier in the day, two in particular, the
southern of which was immediately impressive on radar and visually.
I was between the two storms to the east, and was able to choose which I
should chase based on a variety of factors. The decision was
permanent since both cells were approaching unfavorable road networks.
I was lucky that I chose the right storm and witnessed a fine tornado
near Arthur which kicked off the week of chasing in my life. This
tornado was on the ground from approximately 2315z to 2329z.