Grand Island, NE-- A disturbance aloft shows nicely on the vapor loop, though I've had a bitch of a time downloading one. Convection this morning in northwest and northcentral Nebraska has complicated the picture but ultimately may only reinforce the surface boundary currently along the Neb/Kan border. As that lifts west and interacts with various outflow boundaries, storms should fire when the s/w arrives. I hope. Right now my target is between Broken Bow and Brewster.
The Season that Wouldn't Die
Bloomington, IN- Looks like I'm heading out for a last fling this weekend in unfamiliar territory: the Northern Plains. After working a hard month on the book (about 100 pages of first draft stuff on paper), I'm taking a fourth of July weekend to chase around the untested fields of SW Iowa tomorrow, Western Nebraska on Saturday, and perhaps Southeastern South Dakota on Sunday. A zonal pattern of strong midlevel winds should establish over a very unstable airmass at the surface, and with the proper disturbances, wind shear, and boundaries, tornadoes are possible all three days, particularly Sunday, I think, when dynamics are stronger.
Even tomorrow isn't out the question, and I'll pace myself to arrive in SW Iowa in time to take a look at the setup, hopefully arriving in the area before 4:00 PM. I'm curious about the area outlined by Adair to Pottawattamie to Fremont to Taylor Counties in the SW quad of the state. Much depends on surface features and if any backed flow enhance SRH for isolated storms that may appear. Tomorrow is the least promising of the three days.
I'm printing out maps of these states with counties in bold. The Census Bureau website comes in handy for that.